After a historic weekend at the box office that set a post-pandemic record with $311.3 million in overall ticket sales, the “Barbenheimer” craze looks to carry over into a strong second frame for both films. At the same time, Disney counters with Haunted Mansion in a late summer play for family moviegoers.
2nd Weekend Range: $60M-$75M
2nd Weekend Range: $40M-$50M
Walt Disney Pictures
July 28, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $22M-$36M
- Widespread familiarity with the source material will be an advantage in Disney’s attempt to bring another one of their signature theme park rides to the big screen, for the second time in Mansion‘s case.
- Timing is favorable given the lack of family-driven options at the box office right now.
- A strong ensemble cast adds appeal for parents and adults, in addition to the family audiences being targeted.
- Pre-sales are encouraging, with a pace comparable to Pixar’s Elemental last month and Disney’s Jungle Cruise back in July 2021.
- With a late review embargo lift, critics are divided on the film. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 49 percent from 70 reviews as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Opening a film that’s thematically more fit for the Halloween period in the late summer is a somewhat questionable decision.
- Staying power could be impacted by the arrival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in theaters next week.
Current projection ranges call for a 37% to 44% decrease from last weekend’s $307.8 million top ten aggregate.
|Film||Studio||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 30||Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)||3-Day % Change from Last Wknd|
|Barbie||Warner Bros. Pictures||$69,100,000||$316,800,000||~4,243||-57%|
|Haunted Mansion||Walt Disney Pictures||$28,800,000||$28,800,000||~3,700||NEW|
|Sound of Freedom||Angel Studios||$16,000,000||$153,000,000||~3,100||-19%|
|Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One||Paramount Pictures||$13,300,000||$142,100,000||~3,700||-31%|
|Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny||Disney / Lucasfilm||$4,900,000||$168,100,000||~2,400||-27%|
|Insidious: The Red Door||Sony Pictures / Screen Gems||$4,000,000||$79,000,000||~2,100||-40%|
|Talk to Me||A24||$3,100,000||$3,100,000||~1,900||NEW|
|Elemental||Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar||$3,000,000||$144,700,000||~2,200||-48%|
|Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse||Sony / Columbia Pictures||$2,000,000||$379,500,000||~1,000||-31%|
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.